TyphoonTrigger Met

Manila Coastal Logistics Facility — Typhoon Karding

Typhoon Karding parametric policy for a port logistics facility in the Bay of Manila. All three evidence sources confirm rainfall well above the 188mm trigger threshold.

Location
Manila, Philippines
Event Window
Sep 25, 2022 to Sep 27, 2022
Evidence
3 items
Payout View
Pending
Decision Synopsis

Lead with the judgment

Trigger Met
Confidence
83%
Conflict count
0
Authoritative signals
0
Payout
Pending
Basis-risk note

Evidence is directionally aligned but not fully consistent on severity or footprint. Residual basis risk remains moderate.

Brief
Policy frame, event scope, and geometry
Diagnostics

Policy Brief

Contract-facing terms and payout framing for this case.

Trigger wording
188 rainfall_mm from PAGASA — Ninoy Aquino International Airport gauge.
Threshold
188 rainfall_mm
Window
48h
Index source
PAGASA — Ninoy Aquino International Airport gauge

Decision Posture

Current settlement state before opening the full decision trace.

Current snapshot
Narrative
Trigger is satisfied with 83% confidence after consolidating supporting and corroborating evidence.
Blocking conditions
1
Basis risk
medium
Trigger met for Manila, Philippines. Supporting evidence: rainfall api (312); rainfall api (287). No payout is currently recommended. Basis risk is medium: Evidence is directionally aligned but not fully consistent on severity or footprint. Residual basis risk remains moderate.

Event Geometry

Evidence cards are arranged around the insured asset so the reviewer can compare source distance, observation time, and trigger support in one place.

14.5995, 120.9842
Manila, Philippines
Support legendSupports triggerPartial supportDoes not support
Insured asset
Manila, Philippines
Event windowSep 25, 8:00 AM HKT to Sep 28, 7:59 AM HKT
Review scope3 evidence items linked to this location.
Index sourcePAGASA — Ninoy Aquino International Airport gauge
rainfall api
Unclassified
Observed
Unavailable
Distance
Unknown
312mm accumulated at NAIA gauge over 48h
Normalized reading: 312
Artifact: Not recorded
rainfall api
Unclassified
Observed
Unavailable
Distance
Unknown
ERA5 reanalysis: 287mm grid cell covering insured location
Normalized reading: 287
Artifact: Not recorded
uploaded document
Unclassified
Observed
Unavailable
Distance
Unknown
Port authority damage report: 0.9m flood inundation, operations suspended 26h
Artifact: Not recorded