FloodNot Met

Jakarta Residential Asset — January 2020 Floods

Parametric flood policy for a residential compound in South Jakarta. The index gauge did not breach the trigger threshold despite widespread flooding in adjacent districts.

Location
Jakarta, Indonesia
Event Window
Jan 1, 2020 to Jan 4, 2020
Evidence
3 items
Payout View
Pending
Decision Synopsis

Lead with the judgment

Not Met
Confidence
17%
Conflict count
2
Authoritative signals
0
Payout
Pending
Basis-risk note

Evidence is directionally aligned but not fully consistent on severity or footprint. Residual basis risk remains moderate.

Brief
Policy frame, event scope, and geometry
Diagnostics

Policy Brief

Contract-facing terms and payout framing for this case.

Trigger wording
1 depth_m from BMKG — Katulampa barrage depth gauge.
Threshold
1 depth_m
Window
72h
Index source
BMKG — Katulampa barrage depth gauge

Decision Posture

Current settlement state before opening the full decision trace.

Current snapshot
Narrative
Trigger is not satisfied; the evidence stack supports only 17% confidence against the contractual threshold.
Blocking conditions
1
Basis risk
medium
Trigger not met for Jakarta, Indonesia. Counter-evidence: uploaded document (0.45); rainfall api (377). No payout is currently recommended. Basis risk is medium: Evidence is directionally aligned but not fully consistent on severity or footprint. Residual basis risk remains moderate.

Event Geometry

Evidence cards are arranged around the insured asset so the reviewer can compare source distance, observation time, and trigger support in one place.

-6.2088, 106.8456
Jakarta, Indonesia
Support legendSupports triggerPartial supportDoes not support
Insured asset
Jakarta, Indonesia
Event windowJan 1, 8:00 AM HKT to Jan 5, 7:59 AM HKT
Review scope3 evidence items linked to this location.
Index sourceBMKG — Katulampa barrage depth gauge
flood depth proxy
Unclassified
Observed
Unavailable
Distance
Unknown
Katulampa barrage peak reading: 0.71m on 2020-01-01
Normalized reading: 0.71
Artifact: Not recorded
uploaded document
Unclassified
Observed
Unavailable
Distance
Unknown
Satellite SAR: flood extent within 2km radius, depth estimated 0.3-0.6m
Normalized reading: 0.45
Artifact: Not recorded
rainfall api
Unclassified
Observed
Unavailable
Distance
Unknown
BMKG rainfall: 377mm over 72h — extreme event, but index gauge unaffected
Normalized reading: 377
Artifact: Not recorded