TyphoonTrigger MetHK-TYP-2023-0441

Hong Kong Cold-Chain Warehouse — Typhoon Saola

Synthetic flagship claim packet for a refrigerated warehouse near the Kwai Chung container terminals. Official wind observations cross the first payout tier while flood-related evidence remains mixed, producing a defensible trigger decision with explicit basis-risk notes.

Location
Kwai Chung, Hong Kong
Event Window
Sep 1, 2023 to Sep 2, 2023
Evidence
5 items
Payout View
$840,000
Decision Synopsis

Lead with the judgment

Trigger Met
Confidence
70%
Conflict count
1
Authoritative signals
1
Payout
$840,000
Basis-risk note

Supporting and contradicting sources point to different event interpretations near the trigger boundary. Manual basis-risk review is recommended.

Brief
Policy frame, event scope, and geometry
Diagnostics

Policy Brief

Contract-facing terms and payout framing for this case.

Trigger wording
Payout attaches when the designated Hong Kong Observatory reference station records sustained wind speed at or above the indexed threshold during the covered event window.
Threshold
118 wind_speed_kph
Window
24h
Index source
Hong Kong Observatory — Waglan Island reference station
Policy limit
$1,200,000
Current payout view
$840,000

Decision Posture

Current settlement state before opening the full decision trace.

Current snapshot
Narrative
Trigger is satisfied with 70% confidence after consolidating supporting and corroborating evidence.
Blocking conditions
None
Basis risk
high
Trigger met for Kwai Chung, Hong Kong. Reference station exceeded the first payout tier (132 km/h, 12.4 km from asset, observed 2023-09-01T19:40:00Z) provides the lead contract-facing reading. Supporting evidence: Reference station exceeded the first payout tier (132 km/h, 12.4 km from asset, observed 2023-09-01T19:40:00Z); On-site instrumentation failed after crossing the trigger tier (121 km/h, 0.1 km from asset, observed 2023-09-02T02:15:00Z); Secondary station supports the trigger outcome (126 km/h, 17.8 km from asset, observed 2023-09-01T19:20:00Z). Counter-evidence: Flood extent product shows water around the apron but not through the full warehouse footprint (0.12 m, 0.6 km from asset, observed 2023-09-02T04:30:00Z). Recommended payout is USD 840,000 (70% of limit). Basis risk is high: Supporting and contradicting sources point to different event interpretations near the trigger boundary. Manual basis-risk review is recommended.

Event Geometry

Evidence cards are arranged around the insured asset so the reviewer can compare source distance, observation time, and trigger support in one place.

22.3566, 114.1277
Kwai Chung, Hong Kong
Support legendSupports triggerPartial supportDoes not support
Insured asset
Cold-chain warehouse and loading apron serving containerized food shipments
Event windowSep 1, 8:00 PM HKT to Sep 2, 8:00 PM HKT
Review scope5 evidence items linked to this location.
Index sourceHong Kong Observatory — Waglan Island reference station
Hong Kong Observatory
authoritative
Observed
Sep 2, 3:40 AM HKT
Distance
12.4 km
Reference station exceeded the first payout tier
Normalized reading: 132 km/h
Artifact: Station bulletin — Waglan Island
Pacific Claims Services
corroborating
Observed
Sep 2, 10:15 AM HKT
Distance
0.1 km
On-site instrumentation failed after crossing the trigger tier
Normalized reading: 121 km/h
Artifact: Adjuster worksheet PCS-1148
Insured incident packet
corroborating
Observed
Sep 2, 3:55 AM HKT
Distance
0 km
Claims packet confirms operational disruption and secondary flood impact
Normalized reading: 0.38 m
Artifact: Claim packet section 2.3
Public flood extent sample
indicative
Observed
Sep 2, 12:30 PM HKT
Distance
0.6 km
Flood extent product shows water around the apron but not through the full warehouse footprint
Normalized reading: 0.12 m
Artifact: Synthetic flood extent raster clip
Hong Kong Observatory
corroborating
Observed
Sep 2, 3:20 AM HKT
Distance
17.8 km
Secondary station supports the trigger outcome
Normalized reading: 126 km/h
Artifact: Station bulletin — Cheung Chau